Notes from the Volt Delta research desk on battery condition, residuals, listing dispersion and the 2028 warranty cliff.
Roughly 300,000 mass-market EVs sold between 2020 and 2023 will leave manufacturer battery warranty between Q4 2027 and the end of 2028. Most lenders haven't modelled what that means for residuals.
Same year, same trim, same mileage, same colour. One walks off the forecourt at £18,400; the other sits for two months and clears at £16,600. The gap is almost always observable in five minutes.
OBD2 State of Health is a number. Observed condition is a judgement. Used correctly, the judgement is the more accurate residual predictor — and we can show you why.
Listing platforms publish the asking price. The clearing price arrives in our data two to nine weeks later. The spread is the single most useful market signal we publish.
The PCP guaranteed minimum future values written into 2021 EV contracts assumed a different used market than the one we have. We've audited four books — here's where the gap sits.
Fleets that rotated heavily into EVs between 2022 and 2024 are now hitting their first full de-fleeting cycle. Pricing the rotation off auction comparables alone leaves money on the table — usually €600 to €1,400 a car.